Wednesday in Takotna by Myron Angstman

The  run from Nikolai to Takotna  reveals much about the contenders in this year’s race.  But for many years I have focused on the run from  McGrath to Takotna  as a very good barometer of what  might happen from there to the finish. Why?  Because it is a short run at the end of a long run for most teams, and  how well  a team performs  when tired is a strong indication of how they will perform  towards the end of the Iditarod.   

What do those run times show?  The fastest team in that run might surprise some—Jake Berkowitz at 2:08.   After that comes  Lance  Mackey at 2:10,  Mitch Seavey at  2:11,  Pete Kaiser at 2:12,  and Sonny Lindner at 2:12.  Others a bit slower were Aaron Burmeister,  Aliy Zirkle, and Dallas Seavey.  Not included on this list are some  names that no one should ever count out,  Martin Buser, who has yet to make the run,  John Baker who travels slower than  these teams  most of the time but still manages to move up, and  Rayme Smyth who  often makes a mad dash the last half of the race.  

Mackey didn’t take his 24 hours at Takotna, but clearly is the  man to watch right now. His overall moving speed  is high, and last night’s times show that he hasn’t slowed down yet.  His four titles suggest he knows how to win, and no thinking person would make a huge bet against him at this point.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/ 

Out of Nikolai by Myron Angstman

Myron Angstman

Last night I mentioned that  the order of departure from Nikolai is an important  factor in deciding who is a contender in the Iditarod.    There are a bunch of teams out in a fairly short period of time, way more than normal,  and that means it is too early to draw many conclusions.   Aaron Burmeister left first, and what should  we make of that?   Well, Aaron had a good race last year, and has too much experience to run out of Nikolai if his team wasn't ready.  It is also true that his team had a good run in  the Kuskokwim  300 earlier this winter with Tony Browning driving.  But there is one negative that must be considered.   Distant fans can now watch the average traveling speed of each team, courtesy of the GPS mounted on the sled.  This measures the average speed recorded by the sled whenever it has moved since leaving  Willow.  I have every reason  to trust the accuracy of the moving average, and Burmeister is at 8.3 mph,  slower than the three teams right behind him.  Other factors figure in of course,  but that differential must be overcome at some point.   Teams rarely speed up after the first few days of a race.  Some slow down however,  and that is what will have to happen for Burmeister to hang on to his short lead. 

How can a slower team be leading?  Obviously he has taken less rest, but that can only work  so long before the speed factor favors the faster team.  The faster teams gets more rest, while the slower team and its driver get less rest. I have often stated over the years that in distance racing its not how fast a team goes when it is going fast, its how fast they move when they are going slow that determines  which team will win.    Some of the key speeds I am looking at are these: Zirkle 8.5,  Mackey 8.9,  Mitch Seavey 9.0,  Gebhardt 8.3,  Jonrowe 8.7, and  Buser 8.9,  and Royer 8.4.   None of those teams are far from the top spot, and all could be a factor.  Two fast teams are back a bit at this writing, Mike Williams Jr.  at 8.6 and King at  8.9.  One notable team moving very slow is defending champion Dallas Seavey, moving at 7.3  mph.  On a dog trail the difference between Mitch  Seavey at 9 and Dallas at 7.3  is dramatic.  Think how fast a car going 90 passes you when you are driving  73 on a freeway.  But as soon as I wrote this sentence, I noticed on the tracker that Dallas is  moving fast, and  is now traveling in tenth place.  Go figure…

John Baker is  also moving slower than he would  like, at 7.7 mph.  He is often slower at this stage  and  somehow catches up, but rarely has he had  this many good teams in front of him at Nikolai.   A few of the  teams on the trail to Takotna will falter because of the rapid pace  thus far.  Most of these teams will take 24 hours there to rest up.  Some snowy weather is forecasted, which could alter the speed of teams significantly. 

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/ 

Evening Report from Rohn by Myron Angstman

Martin Buser appears to be taking a long rest in Rohn, likely 24 hours, which will have him leaving in the heat of the day,  which is certainly a negative in  warm temperatures.  Several  other teams are leaving Rohn this evening after a short rest.   In recent years, many have gone through to Nicholai without a major stop.  Many of the main contenders have now arrived in Rohn, or will shortly.   

This next run is the one that starts to sort out the contenders from the pretenders.  Most  years, the first few teams that leave Nicholai are the  teams to beat.  And of those teams the ones with the best travel times to  Takotna move to the top of my list.  The Farewell  burn is no longer the challenge it was in the early years after the fire, as much of the downed  timber  and stumps have  disappeared.  In much of Alaska fires create a real mess by burning the roots of trees partially as the tundra burns, allowing the trees to blow down easily in later years.  Now young trees are growing in the burn and  the trail is much easier to follow as well.

John Baker made an impressive run today.  At my last writing he was languishing at the rear of the contenders, but a more or less non-stop push from that point will have him in Rohn shortly.  He is certainly within striking distance of the leaders, but there will be a bunch more catching up to do.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/

Willow to Rohn by Myron Angstman

Lots of talk today about Martin Buser’s 19 hour run from Willow to Rohn, by the far the fastest it has ever been done.   What’s he up to?? Well from a long distance it looks like he may have gambled on weather and trail conditions.   The first team to travel on a recently set trail,  with a bunch of snow and warm conditions, can often have a much better traveling surface than the subsequent teams.  This is because the  thin surface that sets up, after the trail breakers go through, turns to mush after a few teams churn it up.  When it is cold and a trail is set for a while,  it holds up well to a bunch of teams. My guess is Martin discovered this was the kind of trail in front of him, and off he went. He was first out of the chute, he has a fast team, and tons of experience with which to pull off such a run.

Whether it will work or not remains to be seen.  If  he had noticeably better trail than the teams behind him  for 160 miles, he gained an advantage of course.  But did he use up so much energy that the team will not be able to compete at a high level the rest of the way?  We will watch that and other issues closely. It is worth noting that Matt Failor pulled off the same run in just two hours more time.  Using the above theory,  the second team to travel such a trail has the next best trail, and so on down the list.  Failor is a former handler at Buser’s kennel, and is running the Buser second team.  That’s some  kind of “B” team.  

What does that mean for the teams that are further back including John Baker?  If the trail is soft and the temps are warm,  I doubt John is happy where he is at as this is written, leaving Finger Lake in 45^th place, at mid day, running in the warmest part of the day, up hill.   And the worst part of that is the number of strong teams that are a long way ahead.   Playing catch up is John’s forte, but if the catch-up is too long, the task becomes daunting.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/

Iditarod Re-Start Summary by Myron Angstman

Someone asked me today whether  the  weather  is always this good for the start of the Iditarod. The short answer is no.  The first start I ever watched was in Anchorage  in 1975 at -20.  The mushers leaving were dressed like old trappers, and modern racers would laugh at their equipment.  But lately the weather has been spectator friendly, and that contributes to a festive atmosphere  at Willow Lake.   Today it was in the high 20’s,  and  good spirits  prevailed in the starting area.   But someone should tell the Iditarod they need an announcer who is  stronger on his Alaska geography.  An event of this magnitude can’t have as many mistakes on their  booming PA system as we have heard for the past few years.

This report is abbreviated because of the amount of travel involved on starting day,  complicated by  mechanical problems  with my airplane. But no analysis means much the first day. Some of the faster teams go very fast, and if they happen to have an early starting time they look like they are leading the race.   But it takes a day or two to begin sorting the teams out, and all I can tell you tonight is there are a lot of nice looking teams  on the trail.   Martin Buser is   running way ahead at this moment, something like 16 miles, but he will take a long stop soon.   At the other end, Russian racer  Mikhail Telpin is near the back of the pack.  He is  likely to stay towards the back.  Mikhail is running dogs from his homeland that are traditional work dogs. They move slowly, but are extremely powerful and a treat to watch move down the trail.  The Iditarod  has room for teams like that—they make it the  international event that it is.

Tomorrow  I will try to identify some of  the teams that have successfully made a fast start, and those who have lagged a bit too far behind for the first 24 hours.  Meanwhile settle into watching the  GPS tracker, the best innovation for  race spectators ever.  20  years ago I thought I was on the cutting edge when I convinced Iditarod Headquarters  to send me faxes every couple hours, based on calls from checkpoints that were at best sporadic, yet people would call my house day and night to find out the latest news.  Now we complain when a tracker fails to report every  few minutes.  For newcomers  to this site, John Baker has a history of starting fairly slow and moving up in the last half of the race.   Buser, on the other hand, often starts fast, and when he doesn’t its usually a sign things are not quite right with his team.  Folks expect big things  out of his team this year, because he and his son Rohn combined their two teams into one.   Keep an eye on  Martin.

Iditarod XLI Ceremonial Start

 

Myron's Analysis

The ceremonial start of the Iditarod  has become a spectacle in downtown Anchorage, essential to the race  and its fans.  Over the years, many racers have privately grumbled about the hoopla, which has nothing to do with the more serious business of competing in the race. But, most now recognize that it has become a fixture.  And what an event it is.

Thousands of fans line the street, the loudspeaker reverberates for many blocks from the starting line, and  teams and handlers put on quite a show as they make their way out of town.   Every team has two sleds and three passengers- the racer, a handler, and  a paid Iditarider.  Many teams have developed matching costumes for their handlers.  Interviews, autographs, pictures, waves— all part of putting on this unique Alaska event. Team Baker  has a huge group of handlers, one per dog it seems, and each has a leash on the  line as they march to the starting line. Early Iditarod racer, ken Chase, pointed out that in the first years of the race, Anchorage was the actual start, and he recalled going to the starting line with no handlers. Obviously, 10 or more handlers are not needed, but it is a chance for more folks to take part in the event. As my daughter Sarah said as she helped a team to the start a few years ago, it made her feel like she was helping in the race, even though she wasn’t.

For some old timers, the ceremonial start represents a sort of reunion....a chance to check in with the small but far flung community of long distance racers who seldom interact outside of this event. A stroll down the starting area today put me next to friends I hadn’t seen since last year’s start. Some are still racing! Rudy Demoski  first took part in the 1974 Iditarod, and is back now at age 67. Sonny Lindner raced in the 70’s and is still at it. One notable old timer missing from the field for the first time in recent memory is five time champion Rick Swenson. A bad back, and  a few dogs short of the team he wanted to have in the race caused him to withdraw late. Others just walk the street.  Past champion Dick Mackey, at 80, still looks like he could handle a team of dogs. Another champ, Joe Runyan, gathers information for the Iditarod web page and produces excellent reports.

Rural Alaska is well represented in this year’s race. In addition to John Baker from Kotzebue, there are seven other teams who qualify as rural mushers: Louie Ambrose, Josh Cadzow, Richie Diehl, Demoski,  Pete Kaiser, and the Williams  pair, Mike Sr. and Mike Jr. This is a welcome change from a trend away from rural teams a few years ago.  Not only  does Bush Alaska have a good number of teams, but also high quality. Three of the seven are serious contenders for the top spot, and a couple more are likely top 20 teams.

Many race commentators spend  the days before the race predicting the winner.  Not so here! There are about a dozen teams that would easily qualify as serious contenders to win, and another small group that could surprise and end up on top.  There are too many variables to make a reasonable prediction of who will win before they start racing.  Predictions start to make some sense after a few days of racing, so stay tuned.  Meanwhile, if you are within driving distance, catch the real start at Willow tomorrow.

Day After Iditarod40 Finish

Myron's Analysis

The morning after the Iditarod finish is often a bit of a let down around Angstman Law Office. Close watching of race progress starts Sunday night after the teams leave Willow, and consumes a lot of energy. The sources of information available to fans have mushroomed in recent years, and I can only scratch the surface of them and still remain partially coherent. The part that is still coherent has the following observations.

Youth is served. There are a bunch of new faces showing up in the contending spots, and that’s a good thing. An aging group of stars is a concern for any sport. In fact there have been not enough youngsters moving up the ranks in recent years to assure the future of the sport of long distance racing. That appears to be changing. The daunting task of becoming proficient in the Iditarod is obvious. Occasionally a racer starts from scratch and makes the grade, but most often young mushers we have seen recently come through family operations that have existed for years. But kids around this state have young role models to follow, and there is a path to success for beginners.

One big finish illustrates that point. Mike Williams Jr. of Akiak grew up in his family’s kennel and started racing shorter races in the Bethel area a few years ago. He had good dogs to pick from, and a good mentor in his namesake, but he paid his dues in obscure races in the Kuskokwim Delta that few race fans follow. Williams had a phenomenal run in the late stages of this year’s Iditarod and finished eighth, just minutes out of seventh. He has become a legitimate contender for the future.

John Baker had an unusual finish, dropping to ninth after running higher throughout the race. A top ten finish is the actual goal of most competitive racers when they start the Iditarod, and once again John has accomplished that. I mentioned elsewhere yesterday that some research is needed on who has the most top ten finishes in recent Iditarod history. My impression is that Baker is near the top of that list. John completed the race in his usual good spirits. John rarely displays any of the frustration that sometimes erupts when tired racers aren’t doing as well as they might have hoped.

Little attention was paid to the fact that many teams were stacked up in Shaktoolik for a while because of tough winds. That created a big gap between 18th place and the rest of the field. High winds are notorious in that stretch of the trail, and this of course is not the first time teams have waited there. One time many teams were there 2-3 days and organized a basketball tourney in the local gym.

My congratulations to Champion Dallas Seavey and all the racers for taking part in this singular event. It is an event like no other, and is captures the imagination of fans like a magnet. Observers like myself sit in front of a computer and try to imagine what is going on in the dark of the night in the middle of the wilderness. The progress is slow, but continues non-stop. There is always something to report and to discuss.

Long distance racing has some critics, folks who believe the event is too hard on dogs. It is hard in the sense that maximum exertion is hard for all who try. But that is something entirely different than suffering. Reduced to its basics, race dogs are tuned into the idea that their next meal and resting spot is somewhere up ahead. They also soon figure out that the faster they get there, the quicker their meal and rest. So the maximum exertion they put out has a purpose for them. Fast moving teams have better athletes, perhaps a better plan for feeding and resting, and maybe more experience at the daily drill. It is fanciful to suggest that a callous musher could obtain such performance by means other than proper care. If the care given falls below a certain level, the dogs will not perform. In addition, race officials who monitor the teams at each checkpoint would quickly see shortcomings in care.

Dogs that are on a strict training and racing regimen are in good physical condition. To suggest that a fat, out of shape couch dog is better cared for is simply wrong. Who had a better week, me sitting and watching a computer screen, or Jim Lanier, in his seventies and still challenging the elements on the trail? The same applies to race dogs as compared to Tanner, the red dog pictured above who spent much of the week sitting on my lap.

Finally, let me thank the Baker family for asking me to take part on this web page. Watching and commenting on dog racing is a long family tradition at the Angstman house, so writing down a few observations was easy. Whether of not it made any sense is another matter, but since readers were not charged to read, they might have gotten their money’s worth. Speaking of money, it is still a fact that most people who take part in the sport of Alaska dog racing are unpaid volunteers. That includes putting on the races, and putting teams together to take part. There are a few paid positions here and there, but not many, and rarely high pay. Thus, to conclude, I would like to commend the thousands of volunteers statewide who keep the sport of dog racing alive and well in Alaska.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/