Nome is a Long Ways Away

The run across the ice to  Koyuk  shows  Aily Zirkle  still in the lead, but a closer look shows  Jeff King moving faster in second place.  Right now,  he seems to  have the edge, but   Nome is  a long ways away.  Martin Buser and Sonny  Lindner are about  10-12  miles behind, and their speed  is a  bit off the pace of the front two.  The fastest moving team in sight is Dallas Seavey, about 20 miles behind  Zirkle and still not out of it.  His mad dash of the last 24 hours has put him back in the discussion, but it remains to be seen how much  dash he has  left.

A speedy run from  Kaltag has moved  Pete Kaiser  up in the standings.   His  9 hour run put  him  in 15^th place, just ahead of  John Baker who did the portage in 12 ½ hours.    Richie Diehl moved up to 18^th place, passing  Mike Williams Jr who now sits in 23^rd place, not yet in Unalakleet. Katherine Keith is in 29^th, also on the portage.  Meanwhile at the back of the pack rookie Elliot Anderson  has not yet reached  Ruby.

Yesterday’s  discussion of early race  communication brought back memories of how fans used to follow the race.  In early races,  Iditarod headquarters had a phone bank of volunteers  who had a list  of info to dispense to callers. Of course that was a long distance call from rural  Alaska, so time was at a premium  and some volunteers  were slow on the draw.  One tactic that worked was to claim to be from the media, which  of course produced immediate results.  I often called in as Scott Simpson from the New York Times and  people really responded.   Occasionally  a call to a  checkpoint would find a capable observer to describe the scene.  In some villages I had reliable buddies who would  have all the important news when  I called.

Later,  the fax machine became important.  I convinced  headquarters that I needed regular faxes of the standings, so they put me on their every hour list.  Bethel folks would stop by at all hours for an up date, and when I went to gatherings I would bring along the most recent  report and  tack it on the wall.  The internet changed all of that, and for many years most people had instant access to the latest standings, which at the time seemed light years ahead of the early races.  But the advent of the tracker  has completely changed the life of  the fan.  Now instead of  not enough information, we have too much.  I know I am not the only  person who spends way too much time  receiving race info on the computer.  Tracker fever might be a new medical condition.

Watch  for major moves at Koyuk.  Teams with time to make up often try to  do it there.  By late tonight, we  might be able to reduce our  contender list to two.

Quite the Battle at a Record Pace

This morning  it was suggested that by tonight  it would be possible to select three contenders, so here goes.   Earlier  I picked five  likely contenders  when the teams were around Ruby.  Two of those have faded.  Robert Sorlie has lost speed and dropped  back,  and is  likely out of contention.   Martin Buser is  still in second, but his traveling speed is such that he isn’t likely  to be able to keep up  with the three faster teams  now running near him.   The three remaining teams,  Aily Zirkle, Sonny Lindner  and  Jeff King should  battle it out for the win.  And it could be quite a battle.

Zirkle is in the lead.   She has had some great runs to get where she is  and will not surrender the lead easily.  She uses ski poles most of the time, and   has had excellent speed.   Lindner is second and has the slowest average speed of the three,  but has had a couple longer runs without a break.  That tactic  becomes significant  from now on, as breaks become less possible. King has taken more breaks, but is moving the fastest of the three most of the time. The fact that both  Lindner and King took their 24  hour break  at Ruby  is significant in figuring traveling speed.  The posted speed is based on the entire race, and it appears that both teams have had a better speed compared to  Zirkle since  Ruby, although those precise numbers  are not posted.

Zirkle left  Unalakleet after a four  hour break this evening.   Teams trying to win sometimes go direct to Koyuk  without a stop in Shaktoolik.  I don’t expect  Zirkle to do that yet.  Seasoned  race watchers  have suggested to me she likes to take a break every six hours or so, and likely will keep that up as  long as she is ahead.  Lindner would be more likely  to use that option to  erase  the  lead  Zirkle now has. King has also been breaking regularly, as he did last year after passing through Koyuk, in a move that enabled Mitch  Seavey to pass him and win.

I have a set of eyes on the ground in  Unalakleet,  Andy Angstman,  who is reporting what he sees.  He has contributed to the  naming of the three likely contenders, based on watching the teams arrive.  I also had  a chance to chat with five time champion Rick Swenson, who helped  Lindner prepare for the race. Swenson of course knows more about racing the Iditarod than anyone, and he also helped me  make my picks.  Swenson reported that despite his age (64) Lindner is a master at going without sleep.  There will likely be no sleep from  now until White Mountain, and that is often a factor in deciding who wins.

A team that was moving fast  in recent runs experienced  difficulty  just before reaching Unalakleet and scratched.  Nic Petit was running in third place at the time. He had trouble at the spot where Jeff King’s team faltered in another recent  Iditarod after a strong run.  John Baker left Kaltag tonight  in 18^th place, and Katherine Keith arrived in Nulato this afternoon in 30^th place.  She has  fallen well behind the top rookie Abbie West who left  Kaltag in 16^th place.

If there are  three teams still in the running tomorrow evening it will be unusual.  Most often there are one or two teams  out of reach of their challengers  by the time the front of the race reaches Elim.  The race is on record pace, and there seems  little reason to expect that will change.  The record, of course, belongs  to John Baker. 

Ahead of Schedule and the FBI

Aily Zirkle has  jumped into the lead of the race  by not stopping at Kaltag.  At this moment, she appears to be stopped about 30 miles up the trail  with Martin  Buser closing in from behind.    Buser’s travel times have been slower, and  he will have a hard time  keeping up with Zirkle in the days ahead.  He also faces strong  challenges from behind  with fast moving teams now resting in Kaltag.   The two fastest runs from Nulato to  Kaltag belonged to Nic Petit and Sonny Lindner who announced that this is his last race.  He probably made that decision  after bouncing off  a tree in Rainy Pass.

Earlier it was suggested  that by Sunday night the contenders could be narrowed to three.  Because the race is  significantly  ahead of schedule, that date can be moved up to Saturday night.  Tune in here tonight for the straight  scoop.

These twice daily reports might be  the only Iditarod news for a few readers, but obviously  the amount of Iditarod news available to fans is astounding.  At any  moment, a fan  can access the tracker  and learn the precise location of any team, and the speed they are moving. There are eyewitness accounts of the race posted  throughout the day, and video reports are common.  The contrast between the current coverage and early years in dramatic.  Radio and newspaper reports were notoriously  late reporting race status  well into the 1980’s.  In Bethel we would hear a radio report in the morning that often had locations of mushers reported the previous  afternoon,  and  because teams were not required to sign out of checkpoints,  the reports  often had some musher parked in a checkpoint when actually  he  was  50-75 miles down the trail.  Ham radio was the  official  communication network of the race, and  of course the lone operator  at each checkpoint had to  sleep once in a while.  I remember serving as race judge   in 1980 at Unalakleet, where I was stationed in a  room with the checker and the ham  operator.  The radio man lived on coffee, provided by the race, and peanut butter sandwiches the entire race.  We were a ways from the village store and  one time the radio operator  walked over to replenish  his groceries (bread, peanut butter). While he was gone an urgent request came over the  radio asking for the location  of a particular team which I knew was parked outside.  I knew there were fairly strict  Federal rules about who could operate a ham radio, but this was important info, so after a few unanswered calls I picked up the  microphone and answered the question.  There was dead silence on the  radio for  several moments.  Finally  someone asked me to confirm my call sign.  I responded that I didn’t have one.   More silence.  Finally  the operator returned  from the store and I found a reason to tour the checkpoint.  I can only imagine the chatter while I was gone.

When I returned I was told of the possible penalties for talking on ham radio without a license. It was suggested  that Federal prison was a real possibility.  I didn’t talk on the radio again, but I never went to prison. I guess at -20 with a stiff breeze, the FBI didn’t want to  travel to Unalakleet to arrest me. 

Jockeying for Position

Today’s events on the trail confirm most of what was  conjectured here last night.   Martin Buser held the lead for much of  the day, and was first into Nulato.  Next up was  Sonny Lindner, who was the fastest moving team coming down the Yukon after his long rest in Ruby.  The third team into Nulato was Aily Zirkle, and moving well.     Jeff King was  traveling fourth, and  that is a bit of a surprise coming after his long rest in Ruby.  His speed didn't match Lindner’s, and  he also stopped  for a rest in Galena, which  Lindner did not.  The fifth team, in a bit of surprise, was Nic Petit.  He has moved up mainly on the strength  of great speed, which he has shown  in the past few runs.

Not much can be drawn from this information.  Not all teams have  completed  their  mandatory 8 hour rest, and thus equal comparisons can’t be made.  Recent history tells me that the run to Unalakleet is where the elite teams emerge,  and today’s runs were jockeying for position to make a strong run to the coast.

John  Baker  at this writing sits in 13^th place,  in Galena with a bunch of other teams that are just off the pace of  the leaders.  Baker  has yet to complete his  8 hour rest.   Katherine Keith is  in 27^th place, third among the rookies, at Ruby.

Other teams of interest to many folks in rural Alaska should be mentioned.  Aaron Burmeister with Nome roots  has struggled along with a gimpy knee and has  stayed with the leaders fairly well.  He is in ninth place, in Galena, and has completed  his 8 hour rest.  His speed has slipped a bit, but Aaron is a gritty racer and will  have a good shot for the top ten.

Mike Williams Jr  is in 20^th place with 9 dogs on his way to Ruby.  Pete  Kaiser and Richie Diehl are 22^nd and 23^rd, running in lock step on the way  to Galena as well.   Kaiser,  a  Bethel guy like me,  has a fairly young team and  expected his team  might not be ready to match his best finish of 5^th this year.  Diehl is running his second race, and  has moved up significantly from last year when he finished 36^th.

Morning Update

Overnight movement has not changed  my view of  how this race is shaping up.  Zirkle went further down the Yukon than I expected, to  Galena, but she  will need a long rest there,  and  Buser  left Ruby ahead of all the teams  that are taking their rest in Ruby. Next out was Burmeister, who also passed through Ruby without  resting.  Sorlie  followed him,  done with his mandatory  8 hour rest and moving well.  As mentioned  a couple of days ago here,   he  is emerging as the team to watch.  King and Lindner will complete   their 24 hour rests this morning and be on their  way,   with plenty of rest for dogs  and drivers,  to give chase.  How those teams  respond to their late  24 rest will  determine if they are  candidates for the top spot.

John Baker is near Ruby at this time,  and Katherine Keith left Cripple,  running a few  hours behind the  leading rookie,  after taking a long rest.

One item of interest  this morning is the reported extra half hour Robert Sorlie took at Ruby.  Taking more than the mandatory  eight hours is rare for the front runners,  and the reason for that delay  will emerge during the day I’m sure.  He might have slept late.

Two teams  who  had fast runs into Ruby are Petit and Redington.    Petit has been hanging around near the front of the pack much of the race, and one big run could put him in solid contention to win it all.  Redington  is a bit back of the front, but he also can’t be overlooked.

Bets Are In on the Top 5

Tonight I  pick the top five contenders to win the  2014 Iditarod.  This is based on current position, speed, history and a bit  of intuition.  There are some who will question these choices, and please feel free to post on the Baker website your choices.  They are probably better than mine.

Robert Sorlie is one of my contenders.  This is based primarily on today’s run, but also on his average moving speed  which  is  the highest in the race.  He has won twice before, he has  had a few years off to get ready for  this year, and all indications are he is on a roll.

Another contender Aily Zirkle is a bit harder to  figure. Today’s run included a stop not too far from Ruby,  suggesting she will  run straight through the village and   stop later. That puts her on a different schedule and also makes it harder to evaluate her chances.  But last year’s second place finish  figures into the decision to make her one of the five.

Jeff King also makes the cut, but this is a little longer reach because he will be a long ways behind leaving Ruby.  What remains to be seen is how much speed he will gain because of  the 24 hour rest he took in Ruby.  It might enable him to  make a big push down the Yukon, where the trail is very good, downhill, and with a tail wind.  His four previous titles figure  in my thinking as well.

Sonny Lindner makes the cut for many of the same reasons as King. He actually will have  about an  hour lead  on King leaving Ruby, and has  been very impressive in a couple of recent runs.   He is the oldest guy left in the race, and   those of us who live in the bush know that  older people have elder wisdom that shouldn’t  be overlooked.  By the way, I am older than Lindner.

The final member of the top five is Martin Buser.  He is likely to be the first team out of Ruby, and  also will likely have his mandatory 8 hour rest completed when  he leaves.  Zirkle might leave  earlier, but if she does she will  likely be stopping soon putting  Buser back in the lead.   His speed is still quite good on recent runs, and the Yukon trail will favor his usually speedy dogs.  His past wins also figure in my thinking, but  that is tempered somewhat by last year’s race when his early sprint ended up slowing him down a lot at the end.

John Baker does not  make the top five cut despite his history of catching up late.  He likely will move up in the next few days, but there are too many good teams ahead of him now to put  him among the contenders to win.   Katherine Keith won’t win, but she sure is  having a good run and is a serious candidate for rookie of the year.

Looking at Speed

Tonight I will pick my list of contenders, but a preview of that is possible  this morning.   King is putting on a  serious move, pulling away from Lindner on the run from Cripple to  Ruby. His speeds have been good.   Buser will have quite a lead leaving Ruby, thanks to his mad dash out of Willow.  It could  be several hours, maybe as many as 6  if he has a good run  today.  But there is speed  behind him.  The two fastest team in sight are Sorlie and Zirkle.  Sorlie  is 23 ahead of  Zirkle according to the tracker and is slowly emerging as the team to beat,

John Baker took his  24 break at Cripple and will leave there tonight.  Katherine  Keith will see  him leave, now done with  her 24 hour rest and  running in 19^th place.  That positioning now  starts to mean something, as she  stands  first among the rookies.  Abbie  West is  close in second, and moving  faster than  Keith.

Baker’s average moving speed of 6.9  mph is significantly lower than other contenders.  Sorlie, for example  is 8.2.  I have asked the  tracker folks to create a new category of chart,  average moving speed for the  most recent  24 hours or 100 miles.  That would tell the fans a lot more than speed over the entire race.  If a team’s speed is trending up,  teams  ahead will have a problem.  If its trending down, it will be a long  run to Nome as teams rarely speed up once they start  losing speed.  Baker’s history suggests he moves better  later in the race.  He is not far off the pace, and if he picks up speed on the Yukon he could still be a factor.