Outcome of 2012 Iditarod

Myron's Analysis

The departure times from White Mountain this morning leave little doubt about the outcome of the 2012 Iditarod. There might be some slight shifting of teams, but the top five should finish in the same order they arrived in White Mountain. That means Dallas Seavey should become the youngest racer ever to win the race. Aliy Zirkle will likely get her highest finish ever in second. Ramey Smyth will drop back one spot from his second place finish of last year. Aaron Burmeister will get his top finish in fourth and Pete Kaiser will also have a personal best fifth. 


That leaves Team Baker with a possible sixth place finish. For many of his supporters that would seem like a poor finish when in reality he has been a frequent top ten finisher in the past few years,  and of course has won once, and has two third place finishes. For John, driving a very strong team with less top end speed than some, things have to fall in just the right place in order to finish first. There are so many variables in each race that contribute to a team’s finish that it would be impossible to list them all. Suffice to say, this year they didn’t all fall in the place for John.

One thing is unusual about John’s finish this year. It is rare for Team Baker to drop back in the standings in the last couple days of the race as happened this year. That suggests things were not right once he hit the coast and his comparatively long rests there indicate that as well. John will be able to shed some light on that subject soon. Right now he is locked in a tight battle with Mitch Seavey for that sixth spot as they approach White Mountain.

There is another youngster Mike Williams Jr. making a bid for the top ten. At this point he is about five miles behind Baker and Seavey, and moving well. He has never cracked the top ten before.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/

Day 10 with Sam Towarak

　



Sam's Analysis

A song by the Bee Gees comes to mind when the first musher arrives in White Mountain and that song is “For Whom the Bell Tolls” . The bell peals every year in that community- showing their Spirit.

As we write this blog, Dallas Seavey is pulling the hook to head to Nome. He has over an hour lead on Aliy Zirkle and two hours on Ramey Smyth. I thought yesterday that there was some vulnerable moments that were not seized upon. Anticipating the trailing mushers, Dallas Seavey employed some defensive tactics of his own by moving about 10 miles out of the checkpoint watching from a vantage point to see if any mushers would leave the checkpoint, both at Elim and at Shaktoolik. Also there was a decrease in the speed at certain points in the trail, which may have allowed for a pass. Yet no one was poised to seize the moment.

Ramey Smyth. After his mishap early in the race, Ramey ran a very conservative race staying out of the equation till late in the race. Than he ran an impressive run to make a shot at the top five. For a while, I thought he was going to go pass Aliy after Elim but chose to stop and rest his dogs for the final push to White Mountain. He was within a mile of Aliy when he stopped to rest. Now that is an impressive run and Ramey may have stored it in his memory saving the potential moment for the run to Nome. Ramey Smyth is an accomplished musher who grew up around dogs his entire life. His parents both ran the early Iditarods so he lived around that knowledge base. He trains his dogs to pick up speed at the end of long runs, and the run to Nome could be no exception. He and his brother are notorious for having the fastest run from Safety to Nome.

What about Mitch Seavey and John Baker? Right now, they are racing to White Mountain and are six miles short to taking their eight hour in White Mountain and are poised to try for one or two top five slots which they have to share with Ray Redington Jr. who is in the caravan with the two mushers. I think Joe Runyan hit the nail on the head when he analyzed the two mushers (John and Mitch) He said that both mushers has set up a plan to win the race and nothing else. When that was not apparent, other mushers passed or caught up with them. The other mushers (especially Peter Kaiser ) had set up a plan to place in the top ten unlike the two mushers.   It became apparent when John Baker took a long rest at Koyuk- if he were contending for a top finish, he would have gone non-stop to White Mountain. Instead, he stopped in Elim for another rest, hoping to keep up the speed of his dogs. I might mention here also that if Jeff King had still been in contention, he would have affected other mushers strategies and could have possibly been the one who would have taken up the opportunities to take the lead.

I think the Iditarod reenergizes the race when they have a new champion and younger mushers with a following show good promise and potential to challenge the veterans. One of the younger mushers, Michael Williams Jr. is poised for a top ten finish although the fight will be close for him to get the 7-10 slot. Once these mushers experience this kind of finish, they will have figured out how to maintain a top ten finish or finish in a higher position in future Iditarods. I think the veterans like John Baker will readjust their strategy to include how to deal with the cadre of new mushers. We might mention that with the last few years, the race has been won in near or record times so adjusting strategies are limited in what can be done. I think efficiencies early in the race can be done where time is saved but still able to run a conservative race.

People will remember this race as a heavy snow year with a well groomed trail. This has been a plus for the Iditarod because it has minimized dog injuries because of the abundance of snow. Also the fact that the pace has not slowed because of deep snow. The Iditarod is challenging year to year because of the change to environmental and atmospheric conditions. The majority of the scratches happened later in the race and that is a testament to the quality of the teams plus the requirements to qualify to run the Iditarod. If I may digress, in one of the early Iditarods, there was a rumor that a dog team actually made up of strays or unproven dogs. Needless to say, that team scratched at Knik. The musher involved denied the makeup of the team and we will never know if that was true that the dogs were unproven team. The Iditarod has set up the race today so that teams people see at the start line are proven teams capable of finishing a 1000 mile race.

Let’s conclude by discussing the last day of the race. Dallas Seavey is now on the run to Safety and than to Nome. On his tail will be Aliy Zirkle and Ramey Smyth. Doing the math and looking at a probable speed of each team, I am estimating Dallas Seavey’s run to Nome to be about eleven hours. In order for Aliy Zirkle to catch Dallas Seavey the GPS tracker would have to say that she is going 7.63 mph or better in order for her to catch Dallas just for a race down front street. Similarly, Ramey Smyth would have to show 8.27 mph on the tracker. This is assuming Dallas is averaging about 7 mph which he is very capable of doing given his progress so far in the race.

Congratulations to all the mushers on yet another exciting year- Iditarod 40.

Sam Towarak, retired school teacher, dog musher, and sports commentator, lives in Unalakleet, Alaska.

Anticipating the Finish

Myron's Analysis

I would like to declare a winner in the 2012 Iditarod, but its still too close to call. Dallas Seavey obviously has the edge but with 100 miles to go, too many things can go wrong to declare him the winner with Aliy Zirkle in sight behind him and a formidable Ramey Smyth 10 miles back. The most obvious issue would be a carried dog, but there are numerous other things that could go wrong to erase a 2 mile lead. I can however make some wild prognostications.

The top eight are fairly firmly in place. After the above three teams, destined for the top three spots, we have five other teams that have made some space for themselves and are likely to remain in the 4-8 spots-Aaron Burmeister, Mitch Seavey, Pete Kaiser, John Baker and Ray Redington. Expect some jockeying there. Aaron's tracker is not working but if he has been moving for the past couple of hours, he would seem to have fourth place sewed up, as the others are still in Elim.

Brent Sass has a good handle on rookie of the year, running in 14th place at Koyuk. Another Kuskokwim racer Mike Williams Jr. has a shot at the top ten. One musher looked like he made the best move in the race today. Veteran racer Bob Chlupach briefly appeared as the number three team on the Iditarod update page, with a travel time of about 7 hours from Ruby to Elim. Man was he moving. Mistakes happen but that was a bad one.

Folks are gathering in Nome for an expected finish tororrow. The lead teams will start taking their mandatory eight hours in White Mountain around midnite tonight, and leave for Nome in the morning. That will make for a finish in the early evening, perfect for fans. The weather is typical coast weather, clear, cold and windy. I took a short run with 14 dogs tonight in similar weather. It was pleasant. Beautiful sky, great trail and happy dogs. But it was nice to unhitch after an hour and go inside. Imagine how it feels after 900 miles, when you just keep going.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/

Baker Honored Back Home

While John and his dogs have been competing in this year's Iditarod Sled Dog Race, folks back home are cheering him on, and today, John, received the honor of being the NANA Shareholder of the Year.  

NANA Regional Corporation is an Alaska Native Corporation fully owned by more than 12,700 Inupiat shareholders and each year recognizes a shareholder who shows leadership within the community and NANA region, contributes to the community and NANA region, shows political involvement in his or her village, region, or state, helps preserve the Inupiat culture, and makes other contributions that benefit the overall lifestyle of NANA Shareholders.

Robert "Dad Dad" Sampson, with NANA Regional Corporation, presented the award and said, "While we are happy to share John with the rest of the world, we are proud to call him one of our own."

There have been a multitude of challenges the teams have faced in the 2012 Iditarod, including heavy snowfall on the trail and extremely cold temperatures, proving this is undoubtedly the world's most grueling sled dog race in the world. But today John shifted his focus, from the intensity of the trail  and stiff competition, to being named as the recipient of this prestigious award. He was deeply moved and said, "This is the greatest award I can receive. What higher honor is there? Being acknowledged by your own people is very meaningful and humbling."

A video of John was shown during the meeting attended by more than 700 people in Selawik, Alaska, and he received a standing ovation.  A touching tribute as John continues up the trail with perserverance and determination.

Monday Afternoon Update by Myron Angstman

Myron's Analysis

Dallas took his straw a little ways out of Elim and camped. Once again he will be able to see Aliy coming and maintain a lead.  Still to close to call at this point, that’s for sure. I don’t have the times yet, but when they were moving, they had similar speeds on the last run.  

Smyth and Kaiser are moving up. Smyth will be in third shortly, and a little later Kaiser will likely be in fourth. Both are strong finishers, Smyth for many years and Kaiser just a few because he is only 24 years old. John Baker knows the Kaiser team well, and said in Anchorage the team he feared most at the end was Pete Kaiser.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/

Monday Morning by Myron Angstman

Myron's Analysis

Two teams seem to be in the running for the top spot in 2012. Dallas Seavey and Aliy Zirkle are the only two out of Koyuk as of this report, and time is running out quickly for anyone else to give chase. Seavey seems to have the edge in speed, but this run, possibly straight through to White Mountain, will tell the story. In the early going, Zirkle seems to be hanging tough about one mile back, a slight gain in the first hour. Its been a while since a woman won this race, and a lot of folks would like to see Zirkle pull it off.

There has been some juggling behind these two. Aaron Burmeister and John Baker have held third and fourth for a while, but Pete Kaiser has moved into fifth with a speedy team that has moved up steadily. Another rising team is Ramey Smyth, who reached Koyuk right after Mitch Seavey in seventh place. He will likely pass Mitch today.

Sebastian Schneulle reports from Koyuk that Baker can’t seem to get his team cranked up the way he would like at this stage of the race. His report on Ramey Smyth is worth reading on facebook. Smyth has a different style than most Iditarod racers. The modern drivers are normally well equipped with high tech equipment. Not Smyth. I saw his sled at the Willow starting line. It included two pieces of birch, branches cut from trees and trimmed with an axe, which were lashed to the sled as replacement parts for railings that had broken. He said the rough repairs were stronger than the original pieces. For dog coats he uses old woolen blankets draped completely over the dogs. He was one short in Koyuk so he used his parka for the last dog. Sebastian pointed out that Smyth had sick dogs at Nicolai, and was 30^th team into Takotna. His advance into the top ten is very typical-he almost always comes on strong at the end of the race.

Sebastian also reports that the teenagers in Koyuk were taken with Dallas and Pete, both young and too handsome to be dog racers. His report reminds me of an earlier time when Sonny Lindner was the heart throb on the trail. One time in Nome, Lindner, Rick Swenson and myself were seated at a table when the waitress showed up. “Are you guys mushers?” There was some acknowledgement that we were which caused her to look closer. Looking at Lindner she stated “Oh, I remember you, you’re the cute one” We made him leave the tip.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/

Day 8 with Sam Towarak

Sam's Analysis

People in Unalakleet greet the mushers with their beautiful parkas, getting into the Iditarod Spirit.

A couple days ago, we were talking about the veterans in control of the race and today, we see a little change happening. Dallas Seavey has taken the lead, stopping about 10 miles out of Shaktoolik on the trail to Koyuk with Aaron Burmeister, Aliy Zirkle and John Baker choosing to stop in Shaktoolik. The run across the Norton Bay will happen with below zero temperatures. Teams are running out of time to try and catch the leader.

Dallas Seavey’s team coming into Shaktoolik looked very impressive so Dallas took advantage of that and went for 10 miles more before stopping. Mushers will stop on long runs to snack or rest the dogs. Most of the teams stop their teams at regular intervals to allow the dog’s body to recoup and regenerate their bodies. The colder temperatures will dehydrate the dogs so more watering is needed to keep the dogs hydrated.

The “three musketeers” was broken up today when Jake Berkowitz had a knife accident cutting his hand and he was withdrawn from the race given the severity of the cut hand. The other two, Ray Redington Jr. and Peter Kaiser continue to impress the field with the speed of their dogs. Another veteran, Jeff King scratched from the race about 11 miles out of Unalakleet due to sick dogs. He also stated the well groomed trail set up by the trail breakers and the speed of the race as a result of the nice trail.

More team have scratched today including Pat Moon who was driving Middy Johnson’s team. Pat cited the small dog team that he was driving (down to 7 dogs) as reason for the scratch. Expect more scratches further up the trail due to the cold and tough conditions faced so far in the race.

The race is down to the four teams in and out of Shaktoolik. Like earlier stated, options are decreasing for the mushers to disrupt the leader. A bold move can happen overnight or tomorrow to see if there can be a change in the top position. We also could see a race from White Mountain to Safety and who knows, maybe a front street showdown.


Sam Towarak, retired school teacher, dog musher, and sports commentator, lives in Unalakleet, Alaska.