Day 8 with Sam Towarak

Sam's Analysis

People in Unalakleet greet the mushers with their beautiful parkas, getting into the Iditarod Spirit.

A couple days ago, we were talking about the veterans in control of the race and today, we see a little change happening. Dallas Seavey has taken the lead, stopping about 10 miles out of Shaktoolik on the trail to Koyuk with Aaron Burmeister, Aliy Zirkle and John Baker choosing to stop in Shaktoolik. The run across the Norton Bay will happen with below zero temperatures. Teams are running out of time to try and catch the leader.

Dallas Seavey’s team coming into Shaktoolik looked very impressive so Dallas took advantage of that and went for 10 miles more before stopping. Mushers will stop on long runs to snack or rest the dogs. Most of the teams stop their teams at regular intervals to allow the dog’s body to recoup and regenerate their bodies. The colder temperatures will dehydrate the dogs so more watering is needed to keep the dogs hydrated.

The “three musketeers” was broken up today when Jake Berkowitz had a knife accident cutting his hand and he was withdrawn from the race given the severity of the cut hand. The other two, Ray Redington Jr. and Peter Kaiser continue to impress the field with the speed of their dogs. Another veteran, Jeff King scratched from the race about 11 miles out of Unalakleet due to sick dogs. He also stated the well groomed trail set up by the trail breakers and the speed of the race as a result of the nice trail.

More team have scratched today including Pat Moon who was driving Middy Johnson’s team. Pat cited the small dog team that he was driving (down to 7 dogs) as reason for the scratch. Expect more scratches further up the trail due to the cold and tough conditions faced so far in the race.

The race is down to the four teams in and out of Shaktoolik. Like earlier stated, options are decreasing for the mushers to disrupt the leader. A bold move can happen overnight or tomorrow to see if there can be a change in the top position. We also could see a race from White Mountain to Safety and who knows, maybe a front street showdown.


Sam Towarak, retired school teacher, dog musher, and sports commentator, lives in Unalakleet, Alaska.

Sunday Evening Report by Myron Angstman

Myron's Analysis

Events of the past hour have clarified the situation regarding the race for first in the Iditarod. Dallas Seavey blew through Shaktoolik and has a nine mile lead at this writing over both Burmeister and Zirkle, who are stopped in the checkpoint. It would take a dramatic event to derail Dallas from his first win at this point. Chasing a faster team is difficult at best, and the longer the gap, the harder it is. Neither Zirkle or Burmeister would have let Dallas go unless there was a serious need to stop. Earlier today, Burmeister maintained a 2 mile gap for some distance after Dallas caught and passed him leaving Unalakleet. That suggested some parity. Zirkle also maintained a steady gap after the early miles of that leg.

It is too early to declare the race for first over, but there is an obvious front runner who is likely to win. There are a couple of notable departures from the race as well. Jake Berkowitz was withdrawn from the race by officials after he suffered a serious hand wound on the trail while cutting meat for dogs. Both for his safety, and that of the dogs he must care for, the decision was made at Unalakleet to pull him from the race. That is the second time in two years such an incident has ended the race for a strong racer. Last year it was Mitch Seavey who cut himself. He told me before this year's race it was clearly the right decision, although he tried to convince the race marshall he was able to continue. No second guessing is needed here. No racer would be pulled from the race by the experienced race marshall Mark Nordman unless it was a serious situation, and witnesses say it was for Berkowitz.

Jeff King scratched, his first Iditarod scratch ever I believe, after a tough run from Kaltag. I have scratched a few times, and as a recreational musher I did so when things went sour and it was no longer fun. I only wanted to win or place high. If the dogs were not doing well, all of us felt better after we stopped. I always had something better to do than crawl to the finish line. I'm guessing King does too.

There is no shortage of stuff written about this year's race. I read much of it. Aaron Burmeister gets lots of ink for being a heavy smoker, and somewhat out of shape. Let me defend him. Aaron is a veteran racer who has paid his dues by performing out of the limelight most of the time. He has his best run going this year, by far. He's a good guy and a person who promotes dog racing anyway he can--not himself, but the sport of racing. I am delighted to see him do well in this year's race.

ADDED FOLLOW-UP: Dallas Seavey may have stopped on the edge of the ice 10 miles north of Shaktoolik for a good reason. From that vantage point he could see several miles behind him and  start moving  when a team approached.  If he had stopped in the village,  a following team could leave right with him, a big advantage for the  slower team. This way he keeps a lead and still has  chance to rest his speedy team.  We will see if this is his plan, because Zirkle is approaching his resting spot as I write this note.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/

Sunday Morning Report by Myron

Myron's Analysis

The stage is now set for one of the best coast runs in the recent history of the Iditarod. That possibility is based on the number of teams still in the running at Unalakleet. As of this writing, eight teams have arrived within five hours of the leader Aliy Zirkle. Four of those eight teams are moving faster that Zirkle, and the last three of those eight teams are probably the fastest teams in the race. (I haven’t checked speeds way back in the pack where there is sometimes a very fast team taking big breaks at checkpoints) With that set up, there can still be a lot of jockeying for position.

Dallas Seavey has the edge based on team speed and current position. Zirkle had almost an hour lead into Unalakleet, but is moving slower than Dallas. Burmeister has the biggest string of dogs (15) and they are the best eaters among the leaders, and of course calories consumed are like gallons of gas poured in your car. They determine how fast and far you can go. Defending champion John Baker has a history of strong runs along the coast. The temps on the coast right now are brutal. I think that helps Baker, who trains in Kotzebue where warm winter days are rare. Certainly he can’t be counted out, but it is hard for a slower team to catch a faster team that is out ahead. That is Baker’s task now that he arrived in fourth place.

Another former champ Mitch Seavey appears to be fading. His long run from Takotna to Ruby might have left his dogs a bit low on energy. The next three, Redington, Berowitz and Kaiser rolled into Unalakleet with good times and reportedly lots of energy. I sense they might be a bit too far behind (4-5 hours) to contend for the top spot, but look for them to move up.

It is likely there will be two long runs for most of these teams to White Mountain. Because of the 8 hour mandatory layover in White Mountain, that check point has become more or less the de facto finish line. I haven’t done the research, but it is rare for the first team into White Mountain to lose its lead by Nome.

What is it like to be on the sled as the finish line approaches? I have done enough racing to pass along what it was like to be among the leaders in a tight contest. The lack of sleep becomes less of a factor because of the excitement level which builds as the race reaches its final stages. Intense concentration on the events in front of the sled consumes the racer. The dogs are scanned constantly for any sign of problems. The racer knows the gait of each dog, and is by now very used to the speed of travel and energy displayed by each dog. Any change in those factors is a cause for concern. Occasionally a dog will stop pulling for a short time for reasons I never understood. The line would go slack, and I would hold my breath worried that I would have to carry that dog, which was the cause of more than one lost race for me. I would watch the dog intently, sometimes to see the dog gradually fade to the point where I had to put it in the sled. Other times the problem would pass and the dog would fall back into rhythm. Time then to return the focus to the rest of the team.

How far should I go before a short snack? Keep an eye on the trail markers. Losing the trail for even a short time is a disaster in the late stage of a race. Where is the team ahead of us? Where is the team behind us? Is my headlite bright enough? Man am I thirsty, but my juice is frozen. I could sure use a pee break right now, but too much hassle. All these thoughts and more used to race through my mind as we moved along the trail. Long hours on the back of a sled can be boring at times, but not in late stages of a tight dog race.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/

Sat. Evening Report by Myron Angstman

Myron's Analysis

This report comes shortly after the first four teams departed Kaltag for the coast. At that time, Zirkle held a 9 mile lead, leaving about 1 ½ hours before Baker. Among the first four teams, traveling speeds have about evened out. The next team to leave will likely be Dallas Seavey, and his speed is still a bit faster than the teams ahead of him. If he can maintain that speed advantage, he will likely win. But from Kaltag to Nome, lack of rest can drain away speed from teams that are used to resting a bit longer. It is worth noting that this year, like most years, Baker is moving just as fast now as he did most of race. That is how he has moved up at the end of most of his races, and that’s how he won last year.

There is a group of fast moving teams running 7-9, which includes Kaiser, Berkowitz and Redington who have caught the eye of at least one savvy race watcher. Sebastian Schnuelle, an experienced racer, is running the trail with a snow machine and he reported today from Nulato that those three racers could barely stop their teams when they pulled into Nulato a few hours behind the leaders. Leaping and barking dogs are a good sign this late in the race. Further on the trail spy work informs me that of those three teams, Bethel youngster Pete Kaiser has a slight edge in speed. Any team ahead of those three teams that falters will be following them into Nome.

Notably missing from the front runners are a few teams that figured to be in the running. Lance Mackey has stated he has no chance to win, and neither do Martin Buser , Hugh Neff or Paul Gebhardt. The Iditarod is unkind to teams that falter, because the long distance involved tends to magnify shortcomings that develop as the race develops. The two top rookies Brent Sass and Josh Cadzow are running neck and neck at 20 and 21 in the standings. Both are accomplished racers with strong showings in other races before entering the Iditarod. For anyone interested in reading about another kind of rookie run in an old time Iditarod, check this link. http://www.angstmanlawoffice.com/iditarod-rookie.html

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/

Day 7 by Sam Towarak

Sam's Analysis

Unalakleet residents drive up to Old Woman cabin to replenish the wood, groom the trails, establish a trail for stopping, and serve as hosts to any visitors coming in. The late Paul Johnson was a loyal host and he will be missed. The spirit of Old Woman, part of the Spirit of the Iditarod.

Well, today and last night belonged to Aliy Zirkle. She did not use any of my scenarios but she managed to recapture the lead. The lead she had in Kaltag was about 3 ½ hours- which is getting close to being a checkpoint to checkpoint game. The game involved means the leader comes into the checkpoint four hours ahead of the next musher and rests at the checkpoint until the second musher comes in, than leaves for the next checkpoint. We are close to that playing out and one of the remaining contenders needs to step up to the plate to counter Aliy’s lead.

The 90 mile run to Unalakleet lately has been done in one run by the leader which follows another long rest in Unalakleet in order to continue up the coast. Let’s talk about Mitch Seavey and possibly what happened to his lead at Ruby. Mitch chose to do the run from Cripple to Ruby without a rest, and it affected the speed of his team. Losing that speed cost him some options and Aliy in her brilliance, chose to eight hour in Galena.

Two new mushers have joined the fray and they are Aaron Burmeister and Jeff King. Aaron has developed a system that works for him, and in order to perfect the system- it needs to finish in the front. We will see if he unleashes his dogs from the 8 mile limit he has imposed to gain some speed and improve in position. Jeff King is a surprise because he had retired and his dogs were not Iditarod proven but with his mushing skill, he has managed to be up front with the leaders. He can be a musher of concern if he unleashes the stored energy of his dogs at any remaining time of the race. He is to be congratulated for his good showing regardless.

Martin Buser and other mushers are amazed at the pace of the race. Martin says that there are “lots and lots of mushers in the top 30 and are packed in a tight 10-12 hour window“. The top contenders have brought about some separation and those six look to be amongst the contending field for the top position. Aliy Zirkle can win the race if she can do the Portage run to maintain her 3 ½ hour separation. However, I expect someone to move up with her to give her a run for her money on this particular portage run.

From Kaltag forward to Nome, there has been a group of mushers who raced that portion of the trail earlier in the Paul Johnson 450. I will be curious to see if that familiarity on the part of the dogs benefit Aaron Burmeister, Dee Dee Jonrowe and Peter Kaiser who raced in the 450. The perk maybe in how the dogs respond to the trail and pick up on running speed knowing how close they are to concluding the race.

The race on the Coast will excite the masses. This race is far from done and we can expect some surprises still- that’s why they play the game.

Sam Towarak, retired school teacher, dog musher, and sports commentator, lives in Unalakleet, Alaska.

Day 6 by Sam Towarak

Sam's Analysis

Students in a Bethel Immersion school are excited to follow Peter Kaiser as he races the Iditarod. They yell Cingumaarput Nacuk! which translated means "Good Luck Pete (Nacuk is Pete’s Yup’ik Eskimo Name)" Want to thank Virginia Lincoln their teacher for the translation. Getting into the Iditarod Spirit in Yupik.

Aliy Zirkle made an interesting decision to take her 8 hour in Galena. What this enabled her to do is to make the run from Galena to Kaltag with minimal rest, take 6 hours plus in Kaltag and continue over the portage to the coast. Her arrival just before 4pm will allow her to leave just before midnight. Where does that put her in comparison with the top three mushers?

Mitch Seavey left Ruby for Galena at 2pm and that puts him into Galena around 8:40pm tonight. Most of the mushers will check into Galena and check out with items from their bags continuing the journey back down the Yukon to a spot on the trail known as Bishop Rock. I expect all three mushers to do that. Theoretically, it puts them over 3½ hours ahead of Aliy Zirkle. Remember that the top three teams will stop and rest at Bishop Rock. Let’s assume that will be for 3 ½ hours. Than you say that Aliy is running neck and neck with the leaders, but she also will probably feed her dogs at Nulato, lets say for 2 hours. That puts her 1 ½ hours behind the leader.
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Aliy Zirkle increases her options by the Galena 8 hour mandatory rest,. Depending on how she feels her dog team is, she can do a couple of things. She can feed her dogs than get back on the trail. The next option will invite a few chuckles but she can actually increase her rest at Nulato to 4 hours. What this allows her to do is to pick straw (or just dog/personal food)at Kaltag and continue over the portage to the coast. She can stop at either of two shelter cabins 49 miles or 39 miles from Unalakleet if she finds her attempt to recapture the lead has not materialized. The one thing I don’t think she will try is to run from Nulato to Unalakleet in one long stretch run. People may remember that this is what Lance Mackey did and it resulted in an Iditarod win. I think that is a once in a lifetime feat that probably will not be done for a long time.

We have not talked about a John Baker strategy to take the lead by the coast but the potential lies there. He may wait to see if the Zirkle vs. Seaveys countermoves play out to see if it affected the speed of the two Seaveys. What he also may be waiting for is for the younger Seavey race with the older Seavey at some point on the Yukon or the Portage. This could affect either of the teams with regards to speed and John could take advantage of that on the run from Unalakleet to Koyuk. We will know by the interviews at the Kaltag or Unalakleet checkpoint to see what the goals are for the teams that are in the top ten. Many times it becomes a race to maintain position or improve upon.

Modern Iditarods have not seen a large group of mushers who can be in contention and having four mushers aiming for the number one spot on the Yukon keeps it an interesting race.

Sam Towarak, retired school teacher, dog musher, and sports commentator, lives in Unalakleet, Alaska.

Friday Evening by Myron Angstman

Myron's Analysis

Run times and on the trail observations seem to suggest that Dallas Seavey has emerged as the fastest team among the frontrunners. Note that he had the fastest time on that all important run into Takotna, which has often been a key to later success in the Iditarod. Pure speed often shows up well on the run down the Yukon River with decent trails and on most days a tail wind. But for some reason, the Baker team is just 10 miles behind him as I write, and still in a good position. I am not able to confirm this next thought by asking John, but I am confident that in the next day or two you will see him pull into a checkpoint behind the Seaveys, grab his food bag and keep on going. Already the speeds have become closer among those three teams, something that was predicted here a couple of days ago. When he pulls that move, he might catch the faster teams at a time when they are not ready to keep going and all of a sudden its a different race.

There are other teams who have moved up in the standings and are worth noting. Aaron Burmeister is a former Nome guy, and thus favored by rural guys like myself (this job does not require me to be impartial). He has apparently put together his best team and is moving well. Another rural guy, our home town Bethel hero Pete Kaiser, seems to have the fastest team in the top 20, and is also moving up. He has run carefully, stopping when the urge might have been to keep going. He might be too far back to win, but he has a good shot at the top five. And don’t rule out Jeff King either. He is moving well and not far behind. I haven’t mentioned Aliy Zirkle, who is actually out front right now. She has an 8 hour break yet to take, so her lead is temporary, but she is running her strongest Iditarod ever. Of course she can’t be counted out. And by the way, isn’t it wonderful that Alaska’s most famous sporting event allows women and men to compete equally? Because of the strong showing by women in this race over the years we have sort of taken that fact for granted, but it still is an oddity in big time sporting events.

Readers of this blog likely cruise the internet for other race information. If so you should check the website for Pete Kaiser. My son Andy is the guest blogger, and a quick check of that page will reveal that he knows more about this stuff than his father. http://kaiserracing.com/ Someone even tracked him down for a national radio interview which is posted on that page. The Kaisers and Bakers have a lot of typical rural Alaska connections, and one of the connections is that the Angstman family roots for both of them. Pete grew up in the Kuskokwim 300 family of races, and at this moment he is the pride of Bethel.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checking http://www.myronangstman.com/