Frontrunners Ophir to Iditarod by Myron Angstman

While there isn’t a whole lot going on with most teams on their 24 hour break, there is obviously something unusual happening between Ophir and Iditarod. The three teams out there, Lindner, Mackey and King, have been starting and stopping frequently, especially the first two, which is not normal  for front runners.  I suspect weather or trail conditions are the reason but  we will soon find out as  Mackey nears the check point.    If they have had tough going, it becomes a factor in the race.  They have had a much longer run than anticipated, and  it may move them back in the standings if the following teams experience  better going.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/ 

24 hr Rest Mid-Day Report by Myron Angstman

Three  items of  interest while most of the teams rest in the afternoon heat.  John Baker provided  an exclusive interview to a reliable reporter today, and stated he was feeling good about his team.  He expects to pick up the pace now, with dogs that are strong and eating well.  According to the same source,  he sounded  rested.   He will have a lot of teams ahead of him, but certainly is not out of the running.

The second  item of note is the arrival of Martin Buser in Takotna.  Buser came in and left Takotna  about 9 hours before  Aaron Burmeister is able to leave tonight.  That is a  big chunk of time, especially because Martin has a  fast team and lots of savvy.

The final item is the fact that Sonny Lindner is now the first team on the trail.  Sonny is a serious veteran of this race, winning rookie of the year in 1978.   He and I raced the Coldfoot Classic in 1986,  in the Brooks Range.  At one stop  Sonny noted a veteran racer pass us  and he said to me “If you ever see me doing one of these races  after I am 50 years old, promise me that you will shoot me”    Sonny is now 63, and  each year I remind him of his request.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/ 

Wednesday in Takotna by Myron Angstman

The  run from Nikolai to Takotna  reveals much about the contenders in this year’s race.  But for many years I have focused on the run from  McGrath to Takotna  as a very good barometer of what  might happen from there to the finish. Why?  Because it is a short run at the end of a long run for most teams, and  how well  a team performs  when tired is a strong indication of how they will perform  towards the end of the Iditarod.   

What do those run times show?  The fastest team in that run might surprise some—Jake Berkowitz at 2:08.   After that comes  Lance  Mackey at 2:10,  Mitch Seavey at  2:11,  Pete Kaiser at 2:12,  and Sonny Lindner at 2:12.  Others a bit slower were Aaron Burmeister,  Aliy Zirkle, and Dallas Seavey.  Not included on this list are some  names that no one should ever count out,  Martin Buser, who has yet to make the run,  John Baker who travels slower than  these teams  most of the time but still manages to move up, and  Rayme Smyth who  often makes a mad dash the last half of the race.  

Mackey didn’t take his 24 hours at Takotna, but clearly is the  man to watch right now. His overall moving speed  is high, and last night’s times show that he hasn’t slowed down yet.  His four titles suggest he knows how to win, and no thinking person would make a huge bet against him at this point.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/ 

Out of Nikolai by Myron Angstman

Myron Angstman

Last night I mentioned that  the order of departure from Nikolai is an important  factor in deciding who is a contender in the Iditarod.    There are a bunch of teams out in a fairly short period of time, way more than normal,  and that means it is too early to draw many conclusions.   Aaron Burmeister left first, and what should  we make of that?   Well, Aaron had a good race last year, and has too much experience to run out of Nikolai if his team wasn't ready.  It is also true that his team had a good run in  the Kuskokwim  300 earlier this winter with Tony Browning driving.  But there is one negative that must be considered.   Distant fans can now watch the average traveling speed of each team, courtesy of the GPS mounted on the sled.  This measures the average speed recorded by the sled whenever it has moved since leaving  Willow.  I have every reason  to trust the accuracy of the moving average, and Burmeister is at 8.3 mph,  slower than the three teams right behind him.  Other factors figure in of course,  but that differential must be overcome at some point.   Teams rarely speed up after the first few days of a race.  Some slow down however,  and that is what will have to happen for Burmeister to hang on to his short lead. 

How can a slower team be leading?  Obviously he has taken less rest, but that can only work  so long before the speed factor favors the faster team.  The faster teams gets more rest, while the slower team and its driver get less rest. I have often stated over the years that in distance racing its not how fast a team goes when it is going fast, its how fast they move when they are going slow that determines  which team will win.    Some of the key speeds I am looking at are these: Zirkle 8.5,  Mackey 8.9,  Mitch Seavey 9.0,  Gebhardt 8.3,  Jonrowe 8.7, and  Buser 8.9,  and Royer 8.4.   None of those teams are far from the top spot, and all could be a factor.  Two fast teams are back a bit at this writing, Mike Williams Jr.  at 8.6 and King at  8.9.  One notable team moving very slow is defending champion Dallas Seavey, moving at 7.3  mph.  On a dog trail the difference between Mitch  Seavey at 9 and Dallas at 7.3  is dramatic.  Think how fast a car going 90 passes you when you are driving  73 on a freeway.  But as soon as I wrote this sentence, I noticed on the tracker that Dallas is  moving fast, and  is now traveling in tenth place.  Go figure…

John Baker is  also moving slower than he would  like, at 7.7 mph.  He is often slower at this stage  and  somehow catches up, but rarely has he had  this many good teams in front of him at Nikolai.   A few of the  teams on the trail to Takotna will falter because of the rapid pace  thus far.  Most of these teams will take 24 hours there to rest up.  Some snowy weather is forecasted, which could alter the speed of teams significantly. 

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/ 

Evening Report from Rohn by Myron Angstman

Martin Buser appears to be taking a long rest in Rohn, likely 24 hours, which will have him leaving in the heat of the day,  which is certainly a negative in  warm temperatures.  Several  other teams are leaving Rohn this evening after a short rest.   In recent years, many have gone through to Nicholai without a major stop.  Many of the main contenders have now arrived in Rohn, or will shortly.   

This next run is the one that starts to sort out the contenders from the pretenders.  Most  years, the first few teams that leave Nicholai are the  teams to beat.  And of those teams the ones with the best travel times to  Takotna move to the top of my list.  The Farewell  burn is no longer the challenge it was in the early years after the fire, as much of the downed  timber  and stumps have  disappeared.  In much of Alaska fires create a real mess by burning the roots of trees partially as the tundra burns, allowing the trees to blow down easily in later years.  Now young trees are growing in the burn and  the trail is much easier to follow as well.

John Baker made an impressive run today.  At my last writing he was languishing at the rear of the contenders, but a more or less non-stop push from that point will have him in Rohn shortly.  He is certainly within striking distance of the leaders, but there will be a bunch more catching up to do.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/

Willow to Rohn by Myron Angstman

Lots of talk today about Martin Buser’s 19 hour run from Willow to Rohn, by the far the fastest it has ever been done.   What’s he up to?? Well from a long distance it looks like he may have gambled on weather and trail conditions.   The first team to travel on a recently set trail,  with a bunch of snow and warm conditions, can often have a much better traveling surface than the subsequent teams.  This is because the  thin surface that sets up, after the trail breakers go through, turns to mush after a few teams churn it up.  When it is cold and a trail is set for a while,  it holds up well to a bunch of teams. My guess is Martin discovered this was the kind of trail in front of him, and off he went. He was first out of the chute, he has a fast team, and tons of experience with which to pull off such a run.

Whether it will work or not remains to be seen.  If  he had noticeably better trail than the teams behind him  for 160 miles, he gained an advantage of course.  But did he use up so much energy that the team will not be able to compete at a high level the rest of the way?  We will watch that and other issues closely. It is worth noting that Matt Failor pulled off the same run in just two hours more time.  Using the above theory,  the second team to travel such a trail has the next best trail, and so on down the list.  Failor is a former handler at Buser’s kennel, and is running the Buser second team.  That’s some  kind of “B” team.  

What does that mean for the teams that are further back including John Baker?  If the trail is soft and the temps are warm,  I doubt John is happy where he is at as this is written, leaving Finger Lake in 45^th place, at mid day, running in the warmest part of the day, up hill.   And the worst part of that is the number of strong teams that are a long way ahead.   Playing catch up is John’s forte, but if the catch-up is too long, the task becomes daunting.

Myron Angstman, lawyer, pilot, and dog musher, lives in Bethel, Alaska. Read more about dogs, law suits and rural Alaska gossip by checkinghttp://www.myronangstman.com/

Iditarod Re-Start Summary by Myron Angstman

Someone asked me today whether  the  weather  is always this good for the start of the Iditarod. The short answer is no.  The first start I ever watched was in Anchorage  in 1975 at -20.  The mushers leaving were dressed like old trappers, and modern racers would laugh at their equipment.  But lately the weather has been spectator friendly, and that contributes to a festive atmosphere  at Willow Lake.   Today it was in the high 20’s,  and  good spirits  prevailed in the starting area.   But someone should tell the Iditarod they need an announcer who is  stronger on his Alaska geography.  An event of this magnitude can’t have as many mistakes on their  booming PA system as we have heard for the past few years.

This report is abbreviated because of the amount of travel involved on starting day,  complicated by  mechanical problems  with my airplane. But no analysis means much the first day. Some of the faster teams go very fast, and if they happen to have an early starting time they look like they are leading the race.   But it takes a day or two to begin sorting the teams out, and all I can tell you tonight is there are a lot of nice looking teams  on the trail.   Martin Buser is   running way ahead at this moment, something like 16 miles, but he will take a long stop soon.   At the other end, Russian racer  Mikhail Telpin is near the back of the pack.  He is  likely to stay towards the back.  Mikhail is running dogs from his homeland that are traditional work dogs. They move slowly, but are extremely powerful and a treat to watch move down the trail.  The Iditarod  has room for teams like that—they make it the  international event that it is.

Tomorrow  I will try to identify some of  the teams that have successfully made a fast start, and those who have lagged a bit too far behind for the first 24 hours.  Meanwhile settle into watching the  GPS tracker, the best innovation for  race spectators ever.  20  years ago I thought I was on the cutting edge when I convinced Iditarod Headquarters  to send me faxes every couple hours, based on calls from checkpoints that were at best sporadic, yet people would call my house day and night to find out the latest news.  Now we complain when a tracker fails to report every  few minutes.  For newcomers  to this site, John Baker has a history of starting fairly slow and moving up in the last half of the race.   Buser, on the other hand, often starts fast, and when he doesn’t its usually a sign things are not quite right with his team.  Folks expect big things  out of his team this year, because he and his son Rohn combined their two teams into one.   Keep an eye on  Martin.